Using a recently developed strong-coupling method, we present a comprehensive theory for doublon production processes in modulation spectroscopy of a three-dimensional system of ultracold fermionic atoms in an optical lattice with a trap. The theoretical predictions compare well to the experimental time traces of doublon production. For experimentally feasible conditions, we provide a quantitative prediction for the presence of a nonlinear ``two-photon″ excitation at strong modulation amplitudes.